Sunday, May 10, 2015


So here we are again, another year, another Eurovision. After listening to all the songs a couple of times, trying to imagine the live performance and taking into account the style etc., I have come up with my top 40 in reverse order below. It’s great to see Australia compete, I’m really looking forward to being in the hall when Guy comes on stage, it will be a great moment.
While I have rarely managed to predict the winner, I think I’ll have the top 5 more or less right this year. Time will tell, only a couple of weeks to go:

Latvia: I can't see this being staged well, nor can I see people actually voting in masses for this; it's a forgettable song and will get deserved votes; (My Placing: SF:17 Final: x)
Azerbaijan: I don't expect this to be staged well, it's not memorable and isn't a strong song though it does have a reasonable chorus - but is it enough? I don't think so (My Placing: SF:16 Final: x)
Montenegro: Likely to be typical Montenegrin staging, a bit dramatic, but more of the same; not sure this will get to the final - it's too similar to previous songs AND there is lots of competition in the slower/dramatic songs this year. (My Placing: SF:15 Final: x)
Finland: CRAP - what were the Finns thinking? (My Placing: SF:16 Final: x)
Poland: Not strong enough to do well, and unlikely to make the final. (My Placing: SF:14 Final: x)
Albania: This could go any way depending on the staging; it's likely to get lots of voting from the neighbours, however, this will not be enough to get it to the top IF it makes it to the final. (My Placing: SF:15 Final: x)
Hungary: Likely that if this gets into the final it will only be because of neighbour voting; even if it does, it won't get into the top half of the board. (My Placing: SF:14 Final: x)
Switzerland: This is going to be difficult to stage and it's not catchy enough to get sufficient votes; unlikely to make the final (My Placing: SF:13 Final: x)
Portugal: Not likely to make the final; the song is missing something and given Portugal rarely benefits from a lot of political voting, I don't see this getting to the final. (My Placing: SF:12 Final: x)
Ireland: Can't see how this will be staged well; and not convinced of Molly’s voice or the song in general; I don't see this getting to the final and if it does, it won't do well. (My Placing: SF:11 Final: x)
Cyprus: Forgettable, it's a nice ballad, but I don't see this picking up many points, it's not different enough to stand out from the rest of the songs. (My Placing: SF:10 Final: 27)
Georgia: The soundtrack is good, however, depends on the staging. I'm not optimistic; unlikely to appeal to enough voters to make the final; in the unlikely event that it does, then it will stay on the right of the board. (My Placing: SF:13 Final: x)
Malta: Malta has a history of sending what could be strong songs, but they tend to fade out and don't do so well; in this case I think the song will get to the final however, it's not a likely winner (My Placing: SF:9 Final: 26)
San Marino: Sounds promising, but I can almost see the disaster unfold on stage - while they may have some success with good staging it may not be enough to get to the final. (My Placing: SF:8 Final: 25)
Lithuania: The only thing going for this song is that it's a duet; but it's weak and will not appeal; it's not memorable enough, however, with good staging it will get votes outside of the neighbourhood.(My Placing: SF:7 Final: 24)
Romania: This is a difficult song to place, the beat is good and it's likely to get lots of votes, especially if staged well, but it's difficult to see how they can stage this; the style may get more than average votes, putting it in the final, but it will struggle to get to the left of the board. (My Placing: SF:12 Final: x)
Serbia: This is more like a take-off of Chiara from Malta, not sure how it will be staged, or received; unlikely that it will get lots of votes - it's a bit outdated; probably won't make the final (My Placing: SF:11 Final: x)
Germany: Could be difficult to stage, however if staged well it could do well; the song doesn't stand on its own unless it is performed well. (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 23)
Greece: Too "typical" ESC style; will get votes but is not good enough to get votes from across the spectrum; possibly won't make the final. (My Placing: SF:10 Final: 22)
France: Unlikely to do well, though I'm sure there will be a lot of effort put into staging etc. it may make the top half of the board, but I'm not convinced they will get any more than that (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 21)
Iceland: This could be a dark horse; it's catchy and could appeal across a large spectrum of age groups if staged well. Definite finalist and likely to be in the top 20 (My Placing: SF:6 Final: 20)
FYR Macedonia: This will get the normal neighbourly votes, but isn't good enough for a spectrum of countries; possible finalist, but not for me! (My Placing: SF:9 Final: 19)
Austria: Unlikely to do very well, however it will appeal across a large audience; maybe the top half of the board (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 18)
Armenia: Too traditional in many ways, the syncopation will not gain votes, though it could win votes just because it's not a solo. It will get votes from some countries and none from others - therefore not likely to get into the top 10. (My Placing: SF:8 Final: 17)
Denmark: The beat is good, sounds like a fun song and it is catchy - this will get lots of votes, but from unexpected countries; it is still a middle of the road song, and may not have sufficient appeal to do well, however it's likely the make the final. (My Placing: SF:7 Final: 16)
Czech Republic: If staged well, then this could gain votes, however, it's not sufficiently catchy to capture imagination across Europe; it's more like a 3 minute moan. (My Placing: SF:5 Final: 15)
Belarus: Staging will be critical for this as well as the quality of the backing vocalists. It's not strong enough on its own, and the melody isn't strong enough to be memorable; reserves to get to the final (My Placing: SF:6 Final: 14)
Israel: Another song that could do very well; probably not a winner, but if staged well is a possible top 10 song. It has a lot of similarity to previous Israeli songs, however, it's sufficiently different. (My Placing: SF:4 Final: 13)
Russia: My first reaction on hearing this was not good, on the other hand I actually like it; Staging will be very good and it is catchy and does capture the ESC spirit - not sure how the current political situation will impact votes, however, they will get to the final; (My Placing: SF:5 Final: 12)
Moldova: Too old style on opening; the beat is modern which will help; but not sure it will appeal to the cross section of voters in all countries. (My Placing: SF:4 Final: 11)
Slovenia: This sounds great on the soundtrack, however, I'm not convinced that this can be performed effectively on stage. Possibly that it will get to the final, however, it may not be able to get to the top of the board, maybe the top half. (My Placing: SF:3 Final: 10)
Spain: This is a strong contender and another top 5 possibility; very catchy and with good staging it will get lots of votes. (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 9)
Netherlands: Nice opening; a bit old style, perhaps trying to recapture the Common Linnets style; different and will appeal to lots of people; definite for the final, and probable top 10 (My Placing: SF:3 Final: 8)
Australia: I'm sure Australia will put a LOT of effort into the staging of this to maximise points, and it's very difficult to predict how the European audience will vote. They are likely to get votes from every nation; it's a good song, with a lot of appeal and it's the ONLY time they can compete unless they win. Could Europe let the EBU know that they want to see Australia next year? (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 7)
Belgium: Modern beat, a bit on the slow side for many though it is catchy and could appeal to a large cross section of the audience. Not sure it's a winner, but it will do well; certain for the final, and possible top 5 (My Placing: SF:2 Final: 6)
UK: I hated this first time I heard it, but it does stand out in the competition and as a result could get lots of votes; it's a happy song moving at good speed, and could be staged very well. Certainly top 10 and maybe top 5 (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 5)
Norway: A very strong contender from Norway this year, and a possible winner; certain for the final and top 10 placing almost guaranteed - though it's always risky to predict - it will do very well (My Placing: SF:2 Final: 4)
Estonia: if staged well, this has lots of potential; quite catchy and very memorable; it will definitely make the final and is a probable top 10 (My Placing: SF:1 Final: 3)
Sweden: This is the most likely winner - I can't see it being beaten; polished performance, will get the Scandinavian 12s, Ireland, UK, the low lands and most "eastern" countries are likely to vote for it - this will take beating - only one other song in the competition can beat it. (My Placing: SF:1 Final: 2)
Italy: A strong contender and the only song that could beat Sweden in my opinion. It would be great to see Italy win and this is a possibility. Let's see what happens (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 1)

So all we have to do now is wait….

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

mmm, nice list but totaly wrong ;-)

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