So here we are again, another year,
another Eurovision. After listening to all the songs a couple of
times, trying to imagine the live performance and taking into account
the style etc., I have come up with my top 40 in reverse order below.
It’s great to see Australia compete, I’m really looking forward
to being in the hall when Guy comes on stage, it will be a great
moment.
While I have rarely managed to predict
the winner, I think I’ll have the top 5 more or less right this
year. Time will tell, only a couple of weeks to go:
Latvia: I can't see this being staged
well, nor can I see people actually voting in masses for this; it's a
forgettable song and will get deserved votes; (My Placing: SF:17
Final: x)
Azerbaijan: I don't expect this to be
staged well, it's not memorable and isn't a strong song though it
does have a reasonable chorus - but is it enough? I don't think so
(My Placing: SF:16 Final: x)
Montenegro: Likely to be typical
Montenegrin staging, a bit dramatic, but more of the same; not sure
this will get to the final - it's too similar to previous songs AND
there is lots of competition in the slower/dramatic songs this year.
(My Placing: SF:15 Final: x)
Finland: CRAP - what were the Finns
thinking? (My Placing: SF:16 Final: x)
Poland: Not strong enough to do well,
and unlikely to make the final. (My Placing: SF:14 Final: x)
Albania: This could go any way
depending on the staging; it's likely to get lots of voting from the
neighbours, however, this will not be enough to get it to the top IF
it makes it to the final. (My Placing: SF:15 Final: x)
Hungary: Likely that if this gets into
the final it will only be because of neighbour voting; even if it
does, it won't get into the top half of the board. (My Placing: SF:14
Final: x)
Switzerland: This is going to be
difficult to stage and it's not catchy enough to get sufficient
votes; unlikely to make the final (My Placing: SF:13 Final: x)
Portugal: Not likely to make the final;
the song is missing something and given Portugal rarely benefits from
a lot of political voting, I don't see this getting to the final. (My
Placing: SF:12 Final: x)
Ireland: Can't see how this will be
staged well; and not convinced of Molly’s voice or the song in
general; I don't see this getting to the final and if it does, it
won't do well. (My Placing: SF:11 Final: x)
Cyprus: Forgettable, it's a nice
ballad, but I don't see this picking up many points, it's not
different enough to stand out from the rest of the songs. (My
Placing: SF:10 Final: 27)
Georgia: The soundtrack is good,
however, depends on the staging. I'm not optimistic;
unlikely to appeal to enough voters to make the final; in the
unlikely event that it does, then it will stay on the right of the
board. (My Placing: SF:13 Final: x)
Malta: Malta has a history of sending
what could be strong songs, but they tend to fade out and don't do so
well; in this case I think the song will get to the final however,
it's not a likely winner (My Placing: SF:9 Final: 26)
San Marino: Sounds promising, but I can
almost see the disaster unfold on stage - while they may have some
success with good staging it may not be enough to get to the final. (My
Placing: SF:8 Final: 25)
Lithuania: The only thing going for
this song is that it's a duet; but it's weak and will not appeal;
it's not memorable enough, however, with good staging it will get
votes outside of the neighbourhood.(My Placing: SF:7 Final: 24)
Romania: This is a difficult song to
place, the beat is good and it's likely to get lots of votes,
especially if staged well, but it's difficult to see how they can
stage this; the style may get more than average votes, putting it in
the final, but it will struggle to get to the left of the board. (My
Placing: SF:12 Final: x)
Serbia: This is more like a take-off of
Chiara from Malta, not sure how it will be staged, or received;
unlikely that it will get lots of votes - it's a bit outdated;
probably won't make the final (My Placing: SF:11 Final: x)
Germany: Could be difficult to stage,
however if staged well it could do well; the song doesn't stand on
its own unless it is performed well. (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 23)
Greece: Too "typical" ESC
style; will get votes but is not good enough to get votes from across
the spectrum; possibly won't make the final. (My Placing: SF:10
Final: 22)
France: Unlikely to do well, though I'm
sure there will be a lot of effort put into staging etc. it may make
the top half of the board, but I'm not convinced they will get any
more than that (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 21)
Iceland: This could be a dark horse;
it's catchy and could appeal across a large spectrum of age groups if
staged well. Definite finalist and likely to be in the top 20 (My
Placing: SF:6 Final: 20)
FYR Macedonia: This will get the normal
neighbourly votes, but isn't good enough for a spectrum of countries;
possible finalist, but not for me! (My Placing: SF:9 Final: 19)
Austria: Unlikely to do very well,
however it will appeal across a large audience; maybe the top half of
the board (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 18)
Armenia: Too traditional in many ways,
the syncopation will not gain votes, though it could win votes just
because it's not a solo. It will get votes from some countries and
none from others - therefore not likely to get into the top 10. (My
Placing: SF:8 Final: 17)
Denmark: The beat is good, sounds like
a fun song and it is catchy - this will get lots of votes, but from
unexpected countries; it is still a middle of the road song, and may
not have sufficient appeal to do well, however it's likely the make
the final. (My Placing: SF:7 Final: 16)
Czech Republic: If staged well, then
this could gain votes, however, it's not sufficiently catchy to
capture imagination across Europe; it's more like a 3 minute moan.
(My Placing: SF:5 Final: 15)
Belarus: Staging will be critical for
this as well as the quality of the backing vocalists. It's not strong
enough on its own, and the melody isn't strong enough to be
memorable; reserves to get to the final (My Placing: SF:6 Final: 14)
Israel: Another song that could do very
well; probably not a winner, but if staged well is a possible top 10
song. It has a lot of similarity to previous Israeli songs, however,
it's sufficiently different. (My Placing: SF:4 Final: 13)
Russia: My first reaction on hearing
this was not good, on the other hand I actually like it; Staging will
be very good and it is catchy and does capture the ESC spirit - not
sure how the current political situation will impact votes, however,
they will get to the final; (My Placing: SF:5 Final: 12)
Moldova: Too old style on opening; the
beat is modern which will help; but not sure it will appeal to the
cross section of voters in all countries. (My Placing: SF:4 Final:
11)
Slovenia: This sounds great on the
soundtrack, however, I'm not convinced that this can be performed
effectively on stage. Possibly that it will get to the final,
however, it may not be able to get to the top of the board, maybe the
top half. (My Placing: SF:3 Final: 10)
Spain: This is a strong contender and
another top 5 possibility; very catchy and with good staging it will
get lots of votes. (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 9)
Netherlands: Nice opening; a bit old
style, perhaps trying to recapture the Common Linnets style;
different and will appeal to lots of people; definite for the final,
and probable top 10 (My Placing: SF:3 Final: 8)
Australia: I'm sure Australia will put
a LOT of effort into the staging of this to maximise points, and it's
very difficult to predict how the European audience will vote. They
are likely to get votes from every nation; it's a good song, with a
lot of appeal and it's the ONLY time they can compete unless they
win. Could Europe let the EBU know that they want to see Australia
next year? (My Placing: SF:N/A Final: 7)
Belgium: Modern beat, a bit on the slow
side for many though it is catchy and could appeal to a large cross
section of the audience. Not sure it's a winner, but it will do well;
certain for the final, and possible top 5 (My Placing: SF:2 Final: 6)
UK: I hated this first time I heard it,
but it does stand out in the competition and as a result could get
lots of votes; it's a happy song moving at good speed, and could be
staged very well. Certainly top 10 and maybe top 5 (My Placing:
SF:N/A Final: 5)
Norway: A very strong contender from
Norway this year, and a possible winner; certain for the final and
top 10 placing almost guaranteed - though it's always risky to
predict - it will do very well (My Placing: SF:2 Final: 4)
Estonia: if staged well, this has lots
of potential; quite catchy and very memorable; it will definitely
make the final and is a probable top 10 (My Placing: SF:1 Final: 3)
Sweden: This is the most likely winner
- I can't see it being beaten; polished performance, will get the
Scandinavian 12s, Ireland, UK, the low lands and most "eastern"
countries are likely to vote for it - this will take beating - only
one other song in the competition can beat it. (My Placing: SF:1
Final: 2)
Italy: A strong contender and the only
song that could beat Sweden in my opinion. It would be great to see
Italy win and this is a possibility. Let's see what happens (My
Placing: SF:N/A Final: 1)
So all we have to do now is wait….
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