Saturday, May 14, 2016

ESC 2016: THE SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION FOR THE WINNER

YLE in collaboration with Accuscore has worked out again the top-15 and who's is supposed to win when we calculate social media mentions, Youtube views, voting history and quite a few other variables. The same methods was also used in both semifinal and they scored 9/10 in both. Truth to be said so did I based only on my own gut feeling, personal taste and experience of following the contest since 1976....
Based on pure facts it should be an easy win for Russia after all. Australia has gained momentum, while Ukraina has lost it after semifinal and France has hung up there but may suffer from not having been fully performed in the semifinals. Next up would be Armenia, Sweden and Austria. Malta would gain from the late draw while the Netherlands would lose being sung already 3rd. Serbia has made its way to the top-10 in the past few days after positive feedback and semifinal performance. Bulgaria, Italy, Croatia, Belgium and UK complete the top-15. 
In other words Armenia, Malta and Austria will gain with the draw, while the Netherlands suffers. Serbia will score big in the ex-Yogoslavian countries and other Eastern countries. It will be also interesting to see if Germany scores null points second year in a row.
And according them this is how Finland will vote: Israel (1), Ukraine (2), Hungary (3), Belgium (4), Australia (5), Austria (6), the Netherlands (7), France (8), Russia (10) and finally Sweden (12). 


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