OGAE POLL: HOW WRONG CAN IT BE?

OGAE's national clubs have been voting of years their favorites in the true Eurovision style. As the results show it's more like for fun than real prediction as more often the results are completely wrong. Since 2007 the fans have predicted the winner right three times (2007, 2009, 2012) and once the winner was in top-3 (2010). But then who wasn't sure Fairytale and Euphoria would win anyways, hands up!? Otherwise it's all wrong.

In 2007 and 2008 fans placed the Swiss entries second. Both failed to make even the final. The number threes, Belarus and Serbia both finished 6th the big night so it was pretty good. However, the 2008 fan winner, Hero, only came 18th in the real thing. In 2009 fans again were for Sweden, placing it 3rd. They came home with 21st place. France was the fan runner up: 8th for real.

2010 was pretty good; fan favorite Denmark finished just outside the top-3, 4th, runner up Israel 14th and the actually winner Germany 3rd. Following that was the total disaster 2011: fan favorite Hungary only 22nd, runner up France 15th and 3rd placed UK also outside the top-10, 11th.

Last year Sweden was a runaway winner in every poll and prediction and also in the real contest. Runner up Iceland came 20th and 3rd placed Italy only 9th. Not so good.

So, in my books these votings are less reliable than bookmakers betting odds for example. But it's fun. And being Eurovision fan is all about having fun, isn't it?

This year, after the 22nd national club Finland has voted (UK 1, Sweden 2, Azerbaijan 3, Ukrane 4, Switzerland 5, Germany 6, the Netherlands 7, San Marino 8, Norway 10, Denmark 12) the situation looks like this:

1. Denmark 212

2. San Marino 157

3. Norway 156

4. Germany 101

5. Italy 99

6. United Kingdom 85

7. Netherlands 84

8. Ukraine 70

9. Russia 53

10. Sweden 52

11. Azerbaijan 43

12. Israel 26

13. Iceland 25

14. Georgia 23

15. Switzerland 21

16. Montenegro 15

17. Belarus 12

18. Austria, Ireland 8

20. Finland 6

21. Croatia 5

22. Moldova, Estonia 4

24. Macedonia 3

25. Greece 2

26. France, Hungary 1

And here's the round up of the top-3 by fans and their real placements the past six years, only the winning songs have managed to make the top-3 of fans of the real top-3s. Interesting:

2007 Serbia (1.), Switzerland (SF 20.), Belarus (6.)

2008 Sweden (18.), Switzerland (SF 13.), Serbia (6.)

2009 Norway (1.), France (8.), Sweden (21.)

2010 Denmark (4.), Israel (14.), Germany (1.)

2011 Hungary (22.), France (15.), United Kingdom (11.)

2012 Sweden (1.), Iceland (20.), Italy (9.)

Comments

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Life after Helsinki 2007 Eurovision

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