Oslo 2010: The final - who's going to win?

First of all I have to say I have no clue anymore. I would have stuck to Sweden but as it is out, my second choice was Azerbaijan but now it is performed first and have not really been very convincing on stage, I must say. I don't like Denmark at all and was hoping it wouldn't even make the final but now it's there. As the last one. Another favourite of mine Croatia is also out. What to think?

So, Azerbaijan starts and is followed by Spain that is followed by Norway and Moldova. Four very different songs to start with which is good, gives good variety. But it also makes them all stand out. My least favourite out fo these is Moldova but it really stands out now between Norway and Cyprus.

Cyprus. I never thought it would make the final but it did look and sound pretty good in the semi. My concern now is that being close to Belgium now separated only by Bosnia-Herzegovina it means trouble. Three guys in a row with guitars. I think that might end Belgium's winning dreams. Maybe.

We move on to totally different world with Serbia next that really stands out now when it is followed by two ballads. Where Belarus is all kitchy and sugar sweet Ireland is pure class. If only Niamh delivers as we know she can (and didn't in the semifinal) until the last note. Greece really got a good slot here after these two ballads that might eat each other out.

United Kingdom really has no chance after Greece. The arena is still filled with testerone and people going "uh! opa!" and will hardly notice him and then it's already time for Georgia. She will stand out for her vocal capacity but will people be too busy watching her acrobatics to pick up their phone and vote?

Turkey will stand out in any slot they are as they look and sound very different from anything else in their black and white. Albania on the other hand right after it has one of the most effective stages in the contest and totally Turkey's opposite with its colorfullnes so she'll be fine but will Iceland struggle coming right after them? This said, the beginning of Iceland is one of the most effective moments of the evening when Hera walks in the cloud towards the camera. Majestic. Massive. Heavenly. Or should I say vulcanic?

Ukraine follows and she surely captures one's eye whether you like the song or not. She's not shadowed by Hera and will be propably very dangerous in the end. France comes and goes and it will be interesting to see how it goes. Anything can happen. Romania and Russia next create a good contrast making way to yet totally different Armenia. Especially when it is followed by Germany. We really move on from one atmosphere to another this year! Unfortunately two ballads follow then, Portugal and Israel. They might harm each other but luckily it's a girl vs a boy before the final duo from Denmark that also seems to be (accidently) girl vs boy. The dullest song of the evening will be last and benefits greatly from that.

So, except very few odd couples Cyprus/Belgium, Belarus/Ireland, Albania/Iceland and Portugal/Israel it is a very balanced running order I think. But who is going to win? I have about a dozen possibilities in my head, the race is very open this year. I think the main contenders are Armenia, Belgium, Turkey, Greece and Serbia. But Azerbaijan, Spain, Norway, Ireland, Germany, Israel and Denmark (sigh) also have a chance. I believe so or the polls do. Or are we in for a surprise like Iceland , Cyprus or Romania? Ok, that's 15. Must I slim down? Ok, at this very moment: Armenia. Belgium. Greece. Turkey. Serbia or Spain the fifth one.

PS. I have been so wrong all season this time so I don't really care anymore at this point.... as long as it's not Denmark!