Here we go again. Every year the prediction of the qualifiers is getting more difficult, this year there's the added re-introduction of the juries in the semi-final and of course the voting pro and against Israel. Also the contest has moved a bit south-east with those comebacks and those who stayed home in west. But here goes judged by the own impressions and the few comments I have read online by those who have seen the rehearsals and not only the 30 seconds video clip and three photos.
Update after show with colors:
Tbh I never quite believed in Estonia but thought for some reason it might do it after all, Portugal I was hoping for a miracle that never materialized, I'm sure they came 11th :-) I put Montenegro in Maybe category but really it should have been in Most likely out as I never believed one minute it will qualify. I still don't get Lithuania and I'm surprised it did qualify, it will be curious to see if it's all juries work or did people really like it. Or is the diaspora just strong enough? I should have trusted my instincts and switch Estonia and Belgium after all before setting this final. That would have scored me 9/10 rather than 8/10 in the end. Oh well....
Sure qualifiers:
Moldova, Sweden, Greece, Finland, Israel
Most likely qualifiers:
Croatia, Portugal, Estonia, Poland, Serbia
Maybe will qualify:
Montenegro, Belgium, Lithuania
Most likely out:
Georgia, San Marino
Let me explain. Moldova does Moldova and when they do they qualify. Energetic and fun. Sweden always does. Greece went from a shock NQ in my book back to sure Q after hearing what the staging really is instead of that 30 sec clip. And Israel , do I need to explain?
Croatia is 50/50 for me while I do want to believe Portugal makes it against all odds. Estonia is another 50/50 being simple and direct and if they manage to give an energetic, fun and happy performance when it matters they just might make it. Poland and Serbia both are for me 0/100. They can go either way and end up in any position between 5-15.
I would be surprised if Montenegro, Belgium or Lithuania makes it. Montenegro, I repeat myself: angry aggressive women don't do well at Eurovision. Belgium's staging looks very cool but the song is a bit too monotone and she a bit plain. Lithuania is just a bit too strange and with all those languages a mess.
Georgia as much I like the trip is just not working on stage; the outfits and the choreography just aren't up to it nor the backdrop and I hear their vocals haven't been so great either in rehearsals so it's not looking good for them. San Marino, my thoird adopted home country has just went to a path I can't be abroad with and I can't take this seriously. The song is catchy as hell but ... no. Could be a null pointer, too, as they might end up 11th in every country. It just sounds like a song like that. Nobody hates but nobody loves enough either.
Predictions aside, who would I like to see in the final for my personal taste and based on the song only?
Moldova, Sweden, Greece, Finland, Israel, Portugal, Georgia, Croatia and maybe San Marino. Really don't care for the rest :-(
*I receive the right to update the prediction after all songs have been performed during the live show before the results :-)
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